Global Mobile Data and Content Markets
in 2005
The slow uptake of dedicated
mobile data systems that were developed in the 1980s is a clear
indication that interest in mobile data in its current format is
limited.
WAP, GPRS, MMS, 1X and other
developments over the past few years certainly haven’t
changed the situation. SMS remains the most successful data
application on the public mobile networks. Corporate data has
found its own niche and, with new developments such as
BlackBerry, is moving further ahead in its own
direction.
Nevertheless, mobile operators
all around the world have still not given up on public mobile
data and still talk about low-cost mobile data
services.
WiMax might challenge mobile
data towards the end of the decade.
In trying to stay ahead of
developments in the fixed broadband market the mobile industry is
developing its own triple play models, in which voice, data and
video are bundled. For this the industry is developing 3¼G
technologies, such as HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access).
Furthermore, they are also linking fixed and mobile together on
IP Multimedia System (IMS), enabling mobile TV.
Mobile is attempting to carve
out its own unique markets next to wireless broadband, but
wireless broadband has the edge at present. The question is: will
it be able to deliver and/or will these two merge into
4G?
If we measure the market based
on the number of mobile content providers, then there certainly
is plenty of interest in this market. Unfortunately these
providers depend on the mobile operators in order to deliver
their products to their customers and the business models that
these operators offer are hopelessly inadequate – they do
not cater for impulse buy models.
With the exception of Japan,
Korea and China very few sustainable models are currently in
operation. The rest of the world is waiting for MVNO models,
which allow content providers the freedom to distribute their own
products and manage their own billing and customer service.
For the complete report, click
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2005 Global Triple Play: IP, Broadband
and Digital TV
The telecommunications,
entertainment, video and multimedia markets are undergoing
sweeping changes, currently characterised by expanding
product/services developments. At the heart of a digital home is
the technical concept known as the media centre. This combines
voice, video and data applications, and includes VoIP, broadband
TV, digital video recorders (DVR or PVR), home networking, CD and
DVD playback and MP3. Cable TV operators, telcos, consumer
electronics and IT companies are all competing for the media
centre business for the digital home. The business model to
deliver these integrated products is know as a triple-play model,
where by voice, video and data applications are all delivered
over one single access subscription.
With the arrival of the
Internet, content became more prominent again and video based
applications were revived in order to deliver them over the
Internet. The file-sharing features of the Internet created
success of Napster. Similar peer-to-peer file sharing initiatives
shows that multi-media file sharing remains a key application.
More specifically, multi-media file sharing can be seen as a
subset of Webcasting, of which streaming data/audio/video and
Video-on-Demand (VoD) are other examples. Nextgen DSL based
broadband networks based on IP are now rapidly moving into triple
play business models.
After legislating for the
transition from analogue to digital TV, governments around the
world are unable to elicit significant interest in digital TV.
Most models are based on the old broadcasting model and very few
viewers so far have been prepared to pay big money for more of
the same TV. The incumbent free-to-air broadcasters have also
hindered its introduction so as to maintain their present
infrastructures, and use their virtual monopolies on public
opinion to force governments to comply. However, under the
pressure of competition from broadband (TV) and other convergence
activities things might change in 2005 and beyond.
Double-play and triple-play
models have been on the table since the early 1990s, when cable
telephony was added to cable TV offerings. Various telcos and
media companies have attempted mergers, alliances and
partnerships to move into this new area; however the full
digitalisation of their networks and increased broadband
penetration was necessary before a more economically viable model
could be developed. The entry of the USA’s #1 Multiple
Service Operator (MSO) Comcast adding VoIP to create their own
triple play model in January 2005 is seen by many as the greatest
threat to local wireline incumbents to date.
One of the first companies to
explore triple-play models in this new environment was Fastweb in
Milan, Italy. TransAct in Australia was also one of the pioneers
of the model, using a VDSL network solution. Japan and Korea were
other early adopters of the triple-play model and they have made
significant progress, which has spilled over into Hong Kong,
Taiwan and other South East Asian markets.
Further progress was made in
2004, when the regulatory regimes in Europe started to deliver
more commercially viable local loop unbundling services (ULL).
This is resulting in some ten million DSL lines in France,
Germany and the UK now being ready for triple-play deployment
– and this number will at least quadruple over the next 12
months.
For the complete report, click
here.
2005 Global Internet - Model for
Future Business Scenarios
The Internet serves as a
testing ground for business models that can be transported to
broadband video services. With close to one billion Internet
users, this market has enormous potential. In 2005, 10% of these
users were on broadband. Every second, somewhere on the planet,
somebody is connected to broadband – opening the way for
video-based services that can be offered on triple play
models.
The convergence of
telecommunications, broadcasting, IT and consumer electronic
markets is offering unprecedented opportunities for those
organisations who understand these developments and are able to
analyse what will work for them. However, it is obvious that
these new opportunities require new business models. New media
developments are driven by technology companies that have a
vested interest in maintaining their own ‘old’
structure. The lack of change towards new business models is one
of the major stumble blocks in the development of a new economic
viable market structures. The Internet can guide us in what
direction we have to move.
With the arrival of the
Internet we have see a relatively rapid adaptation of the New
Media for commercial purposes. It is estimated that already $1
trillion worth of business is done electronically. This revenue
is mainly generated from the business market. With broadband and
interactive digital TV coming up to speed, the residential market
is set to come onboard between 2005 and 2008. However, this
highly technology driven industry needs to become far more
marketing oriented if the emerging technologies are to be fully
exploited. So far the industry has been slow to do so, with its
vertical integrated structures hampering a successful entry into
this market. For starters, it will have to become far more
customer driven as new technologies are putting the user in the
driver’s seat.
The arrival of convergence
whereby the user focus will move toward applications will require
a change in business strategies. Those organisation playing in
the New Media Market will have to shed their predominantly techno
driven approach toward business into a far more marketing driven
direction. The market will move from supply driven to demand
driven and those with the best marketing and customer services
will win, technologies are rapidly becoming commodities. It will
be interesting to see if the industry can flourish in this
environment or if the companies involved will be forced to
retreat into their core network operations.
As the exploitation of the
potential of the Internet increased, so has its criminal
exploitation. This has taken many forms, from simple credit card
theft through complex fraud through destructive activities such
as viruses and hacking to physically dangerous activities such as
the Nigerian Scam and paedophilia. The financial and social
effects of these crimes have grown so significant that
governments have set up monitoring and investigating
organisations and are seeking forms of legislation to overcome
them.
For the complete report, click
here.
Global NGN, IP and VoIP
Advances
Next Generations Networks (NGN)
are huge packet switched data communications networks, the
traditional telecoms infrastructure becomes one large computer
network looking more like WANs and LANs. It will become much
easier for third parties to develop and link services to this
infrastructure, as infrastructure and services will be totally
separate from each other, which will allow for the literally
millions of new services offered by hundred of thousands of
service providers. These networks already exist in the corporate
environment and will start reaching mass markets within the next
5 to 10 years. Think of NGNs as the Internet with its tens of
millions of Websites.
It will be a QoS
multiple-broadband network and will also support seamless
mobility providing users with a ubiquitous provision of
services.
It will be a totally IP based
infrastructure which means standardised, cheap and open access.
IP addressing will bring in not just people and computers to the
network but also cars, fridges, every single power point in the
house and so on.
A lot of attention is currently
given to VoIP, but voice will simply be one of the millions of
applications on this network, voice as such which will hardly
register on these multi giga- or terra bites networks. However,
VoIP offers us a glimpse of the future, it is a first example of
that process of standardisation, cheap and open access and will
be a key driver in competition. VoIP will only come to full
fruition in triple play business models that will be marketed
over the broadband networks; bundling voice, high-speed Internet
and video services such as broadband TV. year.
For the complete report, click
here.
Global FttH - Unstoppable
Developments
The Fibre-to-the-Home is
undoubtedly the next development in telecommunications (and
broadcasting) infrastructure. Once the 1st and 2nd generation
broadband networks are starting to reach penetration levels of
20%, the pressure on the national infrastructure will start to
grow. Video based communication will be the killer applications
on these networks. Access will be a key issue and eventually
through fragmentation of the incumbents and/or regulatory reform,
structural separation will take place between the basic
infrastructure and the retail activities.
However, the technological
resilience of the copper-based network in the wake of broadband
has been a setback for the earlier FttH deployment. It is most
unlikely that countries with subdued infrastructure-based
competition will undertake significant large-scale commercial
roll-outs in the near future. Most initial FttH roll-outs are now
concentrating on their DSL extensions. Green field developments
and niche markets will be the way forward. Other opportunities
exist for developers, cities and states/provinces, who see FttH
as an important infrastructure development and, as such, are
prepared to take the lead in FttH roll-outs. Roll outs in Asia is
bucking the trend.
In these countries, governments
have been instrumental in the development of fibre
infrastructure, they have been assisted by the fact slowly these
deployments are becoming more cost effective to install the
connections and ‘light up’ the FttH. Countries such
as Iceland, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Sweden have been most
progressive - already installing extensive fibre connections to
neighbourhoods or homes. Japan and Korea are in the process of a
nationwide rollout of fibre optic cables. In Iceland, Lina.Net
together with Ericsson, has established a residential fibre
network capable of delivering speeds of up to 100Mb/s.
Furthermore the market in Japan has now been lifted to a level
that competition is now driving fibre further into the market. It
will also be interesting to see if the commitment from US telcos
such as SBC and Verizon are going to eventuate and
when.
One of the most likely
technologies that will bring us to the next generation of
broadband is the 1972 developed Ethernet system from Rank Xerox.
This has been further developed to facilitate the requirements of
high-speed data, and so-called Gigabit Ethernet will be the
preferred network technology of the new carriers that are
emerging around the world. But we are not there yet. It will
bring network costs down by 60%, but deployment is capital
intensive and problems such as scalability still need to be
sorted out. The real test however, will be the correct timing and
developing the right business models. Telcos are still nervous
about this.
For the complete report, click
here.
